Thursday, November 06, 2008

The rumors of a poll surge have been greatly exaggerated?

So, according to a story on CNN, the voter turnout this year did not increase significantly over 2004. That seems to run contrary to massive voter registration reports, and predictions of unheard-of (80%, perhaps) percent turnout. Why might this be?

The story itself suggests that a lack of Republican turnout (not excited, doubtless, by McCain's gutsy middle-of-the-roadness or mavericky unconditional support of the bail-out plan) is one cause.

This sounds reasonable, actually. McCain was not a candidate to be excited over. Nearly all of his support was generated by simply running against Obama. This is comparable to Kerry's campaign against Bush. If Kerry, a Democrat, could lose against Bush, who was by no means popular even then, by running a campaign that consisted mainly of "I am not Bush", then how on earth did McCain, a Republican, lose, who ran a campaign that consisted mainly of... "I am not Bush". Oh, wait.

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